Jason Quint-
With the college basketball season in full gear, NBA-ready talent is emerging all across the college landscape. From little known freshman to National Player of the Year Candidates, this current crop of future NBA-ers includes gravity-defying athletes, lightning quick point guards and talented 7-footers. Although its early, here is my first 2013 NBA Mock Draft.
- Wizards – Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Fr, Kentucky:
Stop comparing him to Anthony Davis, for the love of God. Aside from his affinity for blocking shots and his body structure, Noel isn’t anything like the reigning #1 pick. He lacks the same elite defensive instincts that Davis possessed last year and his offense is nowhere close. That being said, he does have the type of skill set that NBA GM’s gush over, and his defense-first mindset separates him from the rest of the lottery bigs. Washington already has its backcourt, so the best big man available will hear his name first overall, and as of right now, that’s Noel.
/ - Cavaliers – Cody Zeller, C, So, Indiana:
While CZ is having a disappointing season by his ridiculously high standards, he’s still the best offensive big in the draft and Cleveland is desperate for a reliable low-post scorer. Zeller has improved his physique since arriving in Bloomington, lifting the perception that he’s too white and skinny to play in the NBA. He runs the floor extremely well, finishes with a soft touch around the basket, and automatically qualifies for 1st team all-nickname before his first preseason game. “The Big Handsome” will join his big brother in Cleveland and make a big impact from day one.
/ - Bobcats – Ben McLemore, SG, Fr, Kansas:
Two years ago, Bill Self called McLemore the best NBA prospect on his roster, that included future top-5 pick, Thomas Robinson, and the redshirt freshman has lived up to the hype this year as the best player and go-to scorer on one of the best teams in the nation. He has some Brad Beal in him, and had McLemore played last season, I would have ranked him just above the Florida star. While I’m sure Charlotte would like to add another big man to play next to Bismack Biyombo, they’ve drafted defense two years in a row. It’s time to add a scorer to take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker.
/ - Suns – Shabazz Muhammad, SG, Fr, UCLA:
I’m on record saying that Muhammad was overrated coming out of high school, and I still believe it. When I watch him, I see a younger, more robotic James Harden, and while I’ve come around on him as a top-5 prospect and there’s no denying his effort and willingness to take big shots, I don’t think he’ll ever become the offensive force that Harden is. Phoenix will be in a position to draft the best available guy, and some people believe Muhammad is the best player in the draft.
/ - Hornets – Anthony Bennett, SF/PF, Fr, UNLV:
The only thing holding me back from sliding Bennett into the top three is I don’t know what role he’ll have in the NBA. He can undoubtedly score from the low block and is developing into a nice face up player as well, but he can be a liability on the defensive end and he doesn’t move all that well. My fear is that Bennett relies too much on his size and strength in college, an advantage that he’ll lose in the pros. I’d say this is the biggest hit or miss prospect in the top 10. Best case, Bennett can provide some muscle and toughness on the block and allow Anthony Davis to play the high post, a spot that I believe suits him better in the long-term than down low.
/ - Magic – Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Fr, Oklahoma State:
This is the first team drafting for need as opposed to the best player available, but the Magic are fully stocked on young forwards and Nic Vucevic looks like a future all-star in the middle, so they’ll go with Smart, a big, tough point guard who is a matchup nightmare for opposing floor generals. Smart knows how to use all of his 6’4, 225 lb frame to his advantage and he is very adept at drawing fouls. The knock on Smart has been his inconsistent play this season, but terrific performances against NC State (20 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 blocks and 4 steals) and Gonzaga (23 points on 9-15 FG, 6 assists) have scouts wanting more.
/ - Thunder (From Raptors) – Alex Len, C, So, Maryland:
OKC doesn’t really need anything, so they can look ahead and draft Kendrick Perkins’ replacement. My buddy Ethan, who graduated from Maryland last year, described Len’s freshman season like this. “The dude couldn’t speak English, at all. He didn’t know what ‘pick & roll’ meant let alone understand game plans. He’s really, really good though. Just wait until his ESL lessons kick in.” Well they have, and Len has responded with a great sophomore campaign on both sides of the ball. Think Jonas Valanciunas with two years of college coaching.
/ - Pistons – Otto Porter Jr, SF, So, Georgetown:
While the Hoyas are in somewhat of a free fall right now, Porter deserves approximately 0% of the blame as he has absolutely busted it every night playing on one of the worst offensive power-6 teams in the nation. Porter’s best asset comes on the defensive end where he he is an elite perimeter defender. His outside shot and decision making on the offensive end needs some work, and while he isn’t quite as athletically imposing as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, he’ll bring a similar skill set and work ethic to Detroit, filling the void when Tayshaun Prince moves on.
/ - Kings – Trey Burke, PG, So, Michigan:
Let’s be honest for a second. Tyreke Evans doesn’t have a position, Aaron Brooks was a one hit wonder four years ago, and Isaiah Thomas is a gimmicky player who can put up numbers on a bad team but will never be the starting point guard on a winner. Insert Burke, the best true point guard in the draft and one of the best players in the nation. Burke is a terrific floor general similar to Damian Lillard, with a worse outside shot but better feel for the position. He always gets to his spot, rarely turns the ball over, and more than anything, he looks the part. Take one look into Burke’s eyes during crunch time of the next Michigan game and you’ll know what I’m talking about.
/ - 76ers – Rudy Gobert, C, France:
Unfortunately I haven’t seen much of Gobert aside from Youtube highlights and a scouting breakdown courtesy of DX, but I’ve loved everything I’ve seen and read to this point. The thing that stands out to me when watching Gobert’s highlights is how freakishly long he is and how quickly he gets up to dunk in traffic. He also appears to have good timing when blocking shots, and it helps that he can touch the rim without jumping. Currently listed at 7’1, 235 lbs, he’ll have to fill out his frame before he can withstand the bruising nature of being an NBA big man, but 9 out of 10 center prospects have to put on weight, so I’m not too worried about that one. Regardless of whether or not Andrew Bynum signs long-term in Philly, Gobert will help make Sixers’ fans forget all about Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown. Oh I almost forgot, in two seasons playing in France he’s shooting 80% from the floor. Yes, really.
/ - Timberwolves – Isaiah Austin, SF/PF, Fr, Baylor:
My first thought when I saw Austin play was, “damn, this guy can ball. I love his game! I hope he stays in college forever though because he won’t be a good NBA player.” While I’ve come along on the idea that Austin can maybe become a better Austin Daye (not too high of praise, I know), I still think he should and hope he does stay in school as long as possible. Standing at 6’11, Austin possesses a good skill and understanding of the game with range up to 20 feet, but his slender build and lack of ability to do anything other than score makes me wonder why he is considered a lottery pick.
/ - Suns (From Lakers) – Archie Goodwin, PG/SG, Fr, Kentucky:
I think it would be a mistake for Goodwin to leave Lexington after just one year, but they all leave early; I’ve come to accept and expect it. Anyway, Goodwin is clearly behind Muhammad and McLemore at this point in the process and should consider returning to school where he could work on his point guard skills, which are currently non-existent, and crack the top 10 in 2014. My problem with Goodwin right now is I don’t think he really knows how to play organized basketball, with referees and coaches and schemes and what not. Stick him in a pickup game in the park and he’s the best guy on the court, but put him up against a team whose big men hedge or dare I say, trap on screens and Goodwin is lost. Classic case of “needs another year.”
/ - Mavericks – CJ McCollum, PG, Sr, Lehigh:
A broken leg has likely ended McCollum’s senior season, but he’s been on the NBA radar since his sophomore year and solidified his status as a lottery talent by abusing Austin Rivers and Duke in an upset win over the Blue Devils in the first round of the 2012 tournament. He is one of the most natural scorers in the draft, never appearing to get rattled regardless of the situation. The highest praise for McCollum comes from my father, who said, “I’ve watched this guy play a few times, and he’s been the best guy on the court every time. It hasn’t been close.”
/ - Bobcats (From Trailblazers) – Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Sr, Duke:
Seniors rarely become lottery picks for one of two reasons: if they were good enough they would have left school earlier, and the upside is rarely there. Plumlee is one of those rare cases where he improved his draft stock by staying in school and playing four years for one of the best basketball minds on the planet. His noticeable improvement from junior to senior year has him on the short list of candidates for National Player of the Year with Burke and Doug McDermott. I don’t think Plumlee has a true position, which may work in his favor because he’s too quick and explosive for most centers and too big for power forwards.
/ - Bucks – Michael Carter-Williams, PG, So, Syracuse:
The nation’s assist leader this year, MCW (as he will be referred to from now until the end of time) uses his 6’6 frame to create space for himself and teammates.
/ - Hawks (From Rockets) – Jeff Withey, C, Sr, Kansas:
Elite shot-blocker and defensive rebounder and has gotten better on the offensive end every year under Bill Self.
/ - Jazz – Jamaal Franklin, SG, Jr, San Diego State:
You all saw that dunk last week, right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQjrhhZPESE
/ - Celtics – Doug McDermott, SF, Jr, Creighton:
Tremendously skilled forward who moves well off the ball and could turn into one of the league’s best outside shooters.
/ - Hawks – Isaiah Canaan, PG/SG, Sr, Murray State:
Burst onto the scene after leading MSU to a near perfect season a year ago. Canaan can score, then score some more, then keep scoring.
/ - Nuggets – CJ Leslie, SF/PF, Jr, NC State:
One of the most improved players in the nation over the past couple of years, Leslie uses his superior athleticism and outworks opponents to dominate the college game.
/ - Nets – Tony Mitchell, SF, So, North Texas:
I’m not a fan of Mitchell, aka Jeremy Evans Jr., but scouts seem to think his lack of production playing in the Sun Belt conference isn’t a red flag.
/ - Bulls – Tim Hardaway Jr. SG, Jr, Michigan:
Son of the former NBA great is a dangerous outside shooter who has made significant strides as a ball-handler and defender.
/ - Knicks – Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Jr, Gonzaga:
Not only does Olynyk rock some of the best hair in all of college basketball, he has terrific skill and finishing ability to go along with a huge frame. Just don’t ask him to guard anyone.
/ - Jazz (From Warriors) – Phil Pressey, PG, Jr, Missouri:
The Pass-first point guard with terrific vision must learn to cut down turnovers and work on his outside shooting if he wants to become a solid player in the NBA.
/ - Pacers – Victor Oladipo, SG, Jr, Indiana:
The nation’s best defender has become a legitimate threat offensively this year and could have a similar career to Tony Allen.
/ - Timberwolves (From Grizzlies) – BJ Young, PG/SG, So, Arkansas:
Talented combo guard who has struggled to deliver with any consistency.
/ - Cavaliers (From Heat) – Richard Howell, PF, Sr, NC State:
Currently considered a second round prospect, I think Howell sneaks into the first round for his natural rebounding ability, terrific hands and strength around the basket.
/ - Spurs – Dario Saric, SF, Croatia:
6’10 european who is as comfortable running the wing and finishing on the break as he is bringing the ball up the court and running an offense.
/ - Clippers – Andre Roberson, SF/PF, Jr, Colorado:
Combo forward with elite rebounding skills but must improve with the ball in his hands if he’s going to become a starter in the league.
/ - Thunder – Lucas Noguiera, C, Brazil:
Anyone who follows the NBA draft knows all about Noguiera, whose wingspan and athleticism for his size are somewhat of a legend, but maturity issues and lack of a basketball IQ have held him back.
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Glenn Robinson III.. Lottery pick for sure
As a Michigan fan I’ve seen more GRIII than anyone and I think he has the chance to become a good NBA player but he isn’t ready yet and leaving after this season would be a mistake. At this stage I’m just guessing on which underclassmen will enter the draft, WCS and Poythress at Kentucky could be lottery picks as well if they left school
The Jazz will draft Dario Saric in #17 and trade a big man (please Al Jefferson, not Millsap) and the Golden State pick #24 for Marcus Smart. In 2014 they need to take Kyle Anderson from UCLA. And the most important thing: Fire Tyrone Corbin! Brad Stevens (Butler) is outstanding coach. Jerry Sloan could be his mentor.
At this point it looks like the Jazz are more willing to part with Millsap than Jefferson, and I think 17 is too high for Saric, personally from what I’ve seen I don’t think he’s going to have a lengthy NBA career.. 0% chance Smart makes it out of the top 10, hes the top point guard prospect in the draft right now and it isn’t close. Kyle Anderson needs to stay in school and I’m not sure he’ll ever be able to play in the NBA, I’m a fan of his game but I don’t see how it can translate to the next level. and I agree that Corbin isn’t a great coach but Stevens isn’t leaving Butler any time soon and if he does, it’ll be to another college program.
jasonquint, i am glad for the express of you own view on this. I am a Brazilian guy, and first of all, thank you. Great respect for you analisis. But, when i said for the Jazz push for Smart, i knew about his position this far in mock’s. With a view in his high position, the trade (with the Suns, for example, to be able to get a high pick). About Millsap-Jefferson, i chose Al, because Paul was drafted by Utah in second round, and he represents the culture of the Franchise. In my opinion, Saric could be a type european player then Tony Parker or Nowitzik, taking into account his talent and dominance on the U-18 European Tournament. His attitude was great and unusual for a guy of his age. In the Nike Hoop Summit he did great (21 points) too. With regard to Brad Stevens, i said “mentoried”, not now or soon, “mentoried” means, in another words, “time to be able, teaching”.I am saying this not for the pleasure to disagree against you, but to explain better what i meant. Sorry if i commit errors of wording, my english is poor. I hope your answer soon.
About Kyle Anderson, i especified the year: 2014. Means stay another year like you said. Is just a wish. He is not ready. And the Jazz should do with Brad Stevens what the Spurs organization did with Greg Popovich: give him time to learn about the league, at the same time, give to Jerry Sloan the opportunity to finish his job. Jerry would be the Head Coach and Brad the Assistant Coach. But they won’t do, because they don’t have the humility to repair the mistakes. In the other comment i use the word “teaching”, sorry. The correctly expression is “teach him”, really sorry.
And I know Brad Stevens signs 12-year contract with Butler after the run to the NCAA Championship.
What is your standard for put Rudy Gobert so high, when yourself admitted that not seen sufficient ? I think percentage is not the ideal criterion of evaluation, keeping in mind that the kid just dunked all the time. You watch him in the Euroleague ? I followed the European prospects and there is no doubt: Saric is the Best. Even so, it’s a good mock.
Why MC-W in the #15 place and Trey Burke is the #9 ? I hope the Thunder pick Cody Zeller or a Center. We need bigs.
@Michael, I do follow the Euroleague although no I don’t watch it very frequently, whenever games are on NBATV or I have enough time to sit down and stream a marquee matchup I will, but otherwise I rely on the scouting of experts that I trust. I’m a big Saric fan from what I’ve seen and read and have him in the late lottery in my newest mock draft (which will be posted sometime next week) but at this point it seems like Gobert is getting more lottery buzz. This isn’t a mock draft if I were GM of all 30 teams, its what I expect to happen based on the current landscape. @Dururules, nothing against MWC but I think Burke is a better prospect and that seems to be the consensus at this point. @TripleDoble, I’m not sure that another year in school will help Kyle Anderson’s stock, his lack of burst is holding him back, not his ability. Maybe if he becomes a better outside shooter and continues to get stronger he’ll get a shot but I don’t know what position he’d play or what type of NBA team he would fit with. Also no need to apologize, your english is really good considering it isn’t your first language. Thanks for reading.