Niko Regalbuto- So David, last week we discussed which first or second year player in the NBA we would want to have in five years (link), but afterwords we had an interesting argument. I offered the anecdote that if we were to exclude the two former number one overall picks, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, which player would you select, and we chose differently. I personally said Bradley Beal, you said rookie of the year favorite Damian Lillard. So play a little GM for me and provide your argument as to why you would choose Lillard as the future of your hypothetical franchise.

David Vertsberger- I don’t necessarily believe Lillard will be all that, my basis for this debate is that I believe Beal will turn out less impressive. Undersized shooting guards hardly catch my eye, as they’re easy to contest and are rarely effective on the defensive end. Not to say Lillard’s an impeccable defender, he’s far from it, but athletically he can easily be with his quickness and keen eye.
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Offensively, Lillard has already been decent efficiency-wise for a starting rookie point guard, especially one that’s played a remarkable 38.5 minutes a night this season with 20 games of 40+ minutes. He’s a guy that can score in the isolation and work the floor with his speed and solid passing ability. Beal doesn’t stand out as a player that will be more than a spot-up shooter. I’m sure he’ll have more offensive skills than that, he’s no Steve Novak, but it won’t be much from what I can tell. Even if he spawns a Joe Johnson type ability, he’s too short to post up and needs to create extra space than most since he’s shorter than an average shooting guard.
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Niko- Lillard is playing well, and there is no doubt he will be a good player for a long time, but there are a few reasons I would rather have Beal. The 19-year old started the season struggling, rightfully so as the Wizards didn’t really provide much for a rookie to work with in Wall’s absence. Howeverwhile playing with Wall, Beal shoots 48% from three with an effective field goal percentage of 55.3. Pre-draft he was pegged as somewhere between Eric Gordon and Ray Allen, largely because of the great shooting ability he has displayed. I don’t think he is necessarily the 48% three point shooter that he has been with Wall on the court, but it does speak volumes to his shooting ability given the fact that he is just 19. On the other hand, Lillard at 22 years old is a magnificent player, but I just don’t think his ceiling is as high.
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The other thing that bothers me is the growing trend that we’ve seen around the NBA. Growing up, the brand of basketball I watched featured amazing shooting guards like Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, and Allen Iverson to name a few, and even Michael Redd averaged 27 before his injury woes. But now you look around the league, and out of 25 all-star selections just three were shooting guards. Just three! You don’t have to look far and wide to find an impactful point guard, while star shooting guards seem to be a dying breed. Beal already has the deep touch, is exceptional at coming off pin-downs and cross-screens (something veterans even struggle with), and has shown the ability to drive to the bucket. If given the choice I’d have to take the younger guy who has proven that he can excel around some reasonable teammates.
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David- See, you’ve made your point for me. Beal struggles until John Wall, a speed demon with a knack for finding open shooters comes back into the rotation. That’s basically telling me Beal is an impactful spot-up shooter but won’t be much more. Yes, the scarcity of shooting guards in the All-Star game would make it seem as if the position is dead, but the main reason is simply that the best teams and most teams really have defenders/shooters at that spot. DeShawn Stevenson with the Hawks, Courtney Lee with Boston, Thabo Sefolosha with the Thunder, Belinelli in Chicago, Billups with the Clippers, Tony Allen in Memphis, Danny Green for the Spurs, Jason Kidd on the Knicks, and these are just the names off the top of my head. Now Beal could fill this roll well despite how he’ll likely struggle on defense, and for a good team too, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be someone I want in five years over Lillard. Who I can fairly compare to, say, a leaner Deron Williams.
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Niko- I mean yes Beal stuggled in Wall’s absense, but wouldn’t any shooting guard that is just 19 years old and starting alongside A.J. Price, who had previously started three games in three years? I wouldn’t say that is the best position to succeed. He was playing for a team that even with Wall last year, had the second worst record in the league, and I’m not sure you can accurately depict someone’s abilities based on how they played alongside A.J. Price. Damian Lillard is playing very well, but he is also playing alongside Aldridge who was an All-Star this year, Wesley Matthews who is a 40% three point shooter who can space the floor very well, Nic Batum who has displayed fantastic playmaking abilities this year, and J.J. Hickson who was considered one of the most improved candidates early on. I’m not trying to take away from Lillard’s accomplishments thus far, because there is no doubt he has been amazing, but the position he was put in is far different from Beal’s.
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In reference to your point that most good teams are playing defender/shooters at the two, that is true. However, if you look at the most successful teams in the past five years, the teams that have won NBA championship, four out of five have had all-star shooting guards. The only one that didn’t was the Mavs, who played Jason Terry, a very limited and undersized defender, for most of the shooting guard minutes. I know, I know, the whole championship argument is way overdone, but that is the ultimate goal and teams haven’t been doing it without significant offensive impact from the two. Not to say he will be close to the same defending caliber, but Beal is just an inch shorter than Dwyane Wade, who is exceptional defensively. Again, I DO NOT THINK he will be the defender Wade is, but I do think the undersized bit is a little overblown. Beal has been pretty good on defense so far, and I really don’t see it being an issue in the future.
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David- The shooting guards that have won it all lately are Wade, Terry (Stevenson started), Kobe, Kobe again, and Ray Allen. In no stretch of the imagination can one believe Beal will become a Kobe or Wade-esque player, but a Terry or Allen one perhaps. The A.J. Price argument is very much valid, I think Jordan himself would be hindered with Price in his starting lineup. Wade is an exception, for obvious reasons. The important one being that he’s Dwyane freaking Wade.
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Niko- I like the Jordan line. And yeah I wasn’t proposing that Beal will become a Kobe or Wade-esque player, because those are arguably the second and third best shooting guards in league history. I was merely making the point that though teams now are using defensive players at the two, offensive scoring punch from the position has been a very large factor in the success of top teams.
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